Parties of the Establishment in Ireland look nervously at surge in support for Sinn Féin

The 2020 Irish general election will be held on Saturday 8 February 2020. It will be held at a time when Ireland's electorate have become increasingly dissatisfied with the present Fine Gael administrations inability or even unwillingness to deal with a number of important issues including health care, housing and crime. The election was called following the dissolution of the of Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature) of Ireland. At the election 159 of 160 Dáil Éireann seats will be contested, with that of the Ceann Comhairle (speaker/chairperson) being re-elected automatically. 

The present Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar has been subject to increasing criticism and a fall in popular approval. Since May 2016, Fine Gael has led a minority government with the support of Independent TDs (members of Dáil Éireann), along with a confidence and supply agreement with the other main political party Fianna Fáil. An arrangement that sees Fianna Fáil support the present government in crucial votes in order to allow them to retain power.    Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are both seen as being centre-right parties. Both grew out of the aftermath of the Irish Civil War and have dominated Irish political life since that time. However, there are signs of an increasing frustration by a significant portion of the Irish electorate in regard to the performance of these old Civil War parties. 

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are seen to be part of the Establishment who many also view to have a cosy arrangement for one or the other to form a government. There is now some alarm in these parties at recent polling results showing a surge in support for Sinn Féin. This is the Irish republican political party active in both the Republic of Ireland and the north of Ireland. Sinn Féin is one of the two largest parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly and the largest nationalist party in that assembly. It is also is the third-largest party in the parliament of the Republic of Ireland at the present time. 

According to the latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald, is level pegging with Fianna Fáil, both standing at 24%, while Fine Gael is trailing slightly behind at 21%:

Sinn Féin 24% (+5%)

Fianna Fáil 24% (-2%)

Fine Gael 21% (-2%)

Green Party 7% (-1%)

Labour Party 5% (+1%)

Social Democrats 3% (NC)

Aontú 2% (+1%)

Solidarity-People Before Profit 1% (-1%)

Independents 12% (-2%)

Others 1% (+1%)

Whether the surge in support for Sinn Féin translates into votes on election day remains to be seen. Needless to say the parties of the Establishment will be working hard to ensure that Sinn Féin is locked out of power if the polls are accurate so as not to interfere with their present cosy arrangement. However, this will not go down well with a increasing number of dissatisfied voters in Ireland who are now looking for solutions to the many problems that urgently need to be addressed.

Image: Leader of Sinn Féin Mary Loe McDonald courtesy of RTÉ