Irish Election: Sinn Féin success heralds seismic shift in politics of Ireland

There is no doubt that the big winners in the Irish general election, held on 8th February 2020 has been Sinn Féin. When all first preference votes are counted, the republican party has taken 24.5% of the vote, compared to 22% for Fianna Fáil and 21% for Fine Gael. The election was for Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature) of Ireland. At the election 159 of 160 Dáil Éireann seats were contested, with that of the Ceann Comhairle (speaker/chairperson) being re-elected automatically. The final results showed that Sinn Féin had won 37 seats, an increase of 14 on the 2016 election. The establishment parties of Fianna Fáil had lost six seats since 2016 but became the largest party by one seat Fine Gael lost 15 seats from 2016.

The election was held at a time when Ireland's electorate have become increasingly dissatisfied with the present Fine Gael administrations inability or even unwillingness to deal with a number of important issues including health care, housing and crime. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are seen to be part of the Establishment who many viewed as having a cosy arrangement for one or the other to form a government. The success of Sinn Féin has changed that. 

However, the results could have been even better for Sinn Féin. They entered the 2020 general election campaign with the expectation that they might not do well. Until this election they had experienced a number of setbacks and so decided to adopt an understandably defensive strategy of only fielding 42 candidates in 38 constituencies. Given their eventual level of support and the single transferable vote (STV) system used in Ireland, they could have enjoyed even greater success. Nevertheless, the election of 37 seats in An Dáil has broken the two centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, stranglehold on Irish politics.

However, Sinn Féin will not necessarily end up in government despite its success. The number for winning a majority government is 80 seats and none of the three big parties, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and now Sinn Féin have come close to that figure. There will be much political wrangling to come in the weeks ahead as attempts are made to form a coalition government. The preference of  Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is for an entirely new government, without the two big parties. So Sinn Féin have begun coalition talks with other small parties and independents. This is possible in that by not fielding its own higher number of candidates, in areas like Dublin, it has helped other candidates who share a similar economic stance, to fill the vacuum and be elected.

Needless to say the parties of the Establishment Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be working hard to ensure that Sinn Féin is locked out of power. Albeit, that some in Fianna Fáil are now suggesting working with Sinn Féin. Whatever happens in the weeks ahead, attempts to ignore the electoral support for Sinn Féin in this election, will not go down well with an increasing number of dissatisfied voters in Ireland who are now looking for solutions to the many problems that urgently need to be addressed. 

Image: Mary Lou McDonald Leader of Sinn Féin and Teachta Dála for the Dublin Central constituency